Covid-19 Economic Impact Scenario One Summary
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This is a supplementary report to support BERLs Greater Wellington Region COVID-19 economic impact report based on three scenarios.
Our analysis shows that in the best case scenario (scenario one) the national and regional economy will take at least five years to recover from the impacts of COVID-19. Even then, growth will be below that experienced in the years prior to COVID-19.
Under this scenario the population of the Wellington region is expected to increase from 524,876 in 2020 to 569,821 in 2030. This is an 8.6 percent increase (44,945 people). Population growth from outside the region is expected to continue. However, this will be at a much lower rate than expected before COVID-19. The rate of job
creation in the region is expected to slow as businesses recover. As a result there is likely to be fewer opportunities to attract people to the region from other parts of New Zealand.