A brief summary of climate and hydrological conditions in the region.
This service is regularly updated during periods in which closer monitoring is required (regardless of time of the year), in recognition that there is potential for dry spells, or irregular hydrological recharging. It does not define an official council position on drought or drought declaration. Outside of dry periods, less frequent updates synchronise with our latest seasonal outlooks.
Updated 5 June 2024
Next update due when there is a significant change of conditions or a new seasonal outlook.
Background
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event is now over. This has been a highly unusual, or ‘non-traditional’ event. The weather patterns throughout the warm season were mixed with alternating flows and thunderstorms, which are uncommon in El Niño years. Due to this recurring feature, a more severe and widespread dryness event was prevented, even though drought was declared in the Wairarapa. From the figure below, we can see that this year’s El Niño resembled most closely the 1982/1983 event, but overall was not as severe as the strongest historical events.
Current situation
After a dry summer and autumn, soil moisture levels are still below average and slowly recovering as we head into the cold season. The eastern Wairarapa was one of the driest spots, with total accumulations only between 20 and 40% of the seasonal average. This pattern has remained mostly unchanged until April. However, thanks to a significant easterly event in the second half of May, the driest parts of the Wairarapa have received above average rainfall for the first time since November 2023. The national drought index, which is updated daily (see below), is indicating that most of the region remains on a slow recovery path towards neutral conditions (i.e., no longer classed as dry).
Meteorological outlook
International climate models are predicting that a reversal back to La Niña will likely take place by early spring. However, there are no firm indicators at present to suggest that we will have a very impactful event of the same magnitude seen years ago, which culminated in the floods associated with cyclone Gabrielle. While we will need to continue to monitor the evolution of the climate drivers, for now most climate models agree that a predominant westerly regime will prevail throughout winter, possibly with above average rainfall west of the ranges and below average east of the ranges.
Climate change
The ‘normal’ longer-term water balance is becoming increasingly hard to maintain quite possibly due to climate change influences, and increased high frequency climate variability, with more unreliable weather patterns. Droughts are expected to become more severe and frequent in the Wellington region, particularly in the Wairarapa. Even if international climate policy efforts were to successfully contain global warming under 1.5-2 degrees (the Paris Agreement’s ambition), it is important that we enhance our water resilience and be prepared for more unreliable climate patterns with both extreme dry and extreme wet periods. We note that the warming of the land also means that evapotranspiration will greatly increase, so the soil will likely need more ongoing rain to maintain ideal moisture levels, compared to what it has needed in the past.
View the latest national drought index state
View the national drought forecasting dashboard
View the latest seasonal report:
Climate drivers and seasonal outlook for the Wellington Region - Autumn 2024 summary Winter 2024 outlook
Autumn 2024 was still affected by El Niño impacts, with drier than normal conditions in most of the Wellington Region, especially towards the northern half of the region. Temperatures were… Read more here
date_range Published 14 Jun 2024
Download now (PDF 2.2 MB) get_appBrowse the data
Anomaly Maps
How different has recent rainfall/soil moisture been compared with the same time in previous years?
Site-specific graphs
| Area | Rainfall | Soil Moisture |
| Kapiti Coast (lowland) | Otaki at Depot | |
| Kapiti Coast (high altitude) | Penn Creek at McIntosh | |
| Porirua | Horokiri Stream at Battle Hill | |
| Wellington City | Kaiwharawhara Stream at Karori Reservoir | |
| Hutt Valley (upper catchment) | Hutt River at Kaitoke Headworks | |
| Upper Hutt | Upper Hutt at Savage Park | Upper Hutt at Savage Park AQ |
| Wainuiomata | Wanuiomata River at Wainui Reservoir | |
| Wairarapa (high altitude) | Waingawa River at Angle Knob | |
| Wairarapa Valley (north) | Kopuaranga River at Mauriceville | |
| Wairarapa Valley (Masterton) | Ruamahanga River at Wairarapa College | Wairarapa College AQ |
| Wairarapa Valley (south) | Tauherenikau River at Racecourse | Tauherenikau River at Racecourse |
| Wairarapa (north-eastern hills) | Whareama River at Tanawa Hut | Whareama River at Tanawa Hut |
| Wairarapa (south-eastern hills) | Waikoukou at Longbush | Waikoukou at Longbush |
Get in touch
- Phone:
- 0800496734
- Email:
- info@gw.govt.nz